Bitcoin back above $77,500, XRP leads majors as Fed hike odds slide to 62%
By Shaurya Malwa from CoinDesk
Bitcoin traded just above $77,600 in Asian morning hours Thursday, up roughly 1.5% over 24 hours, after touching a 24-hour low of $76,400 in late U.S. hours.
XRP led the majors at $1.36, up almost 3%. BNB added almost 2% to just under $692 and solana 2% to hold the $100 line, while tron rose about 1% to roughly 33 cents and hyperliquid’s HYPE was flat just above $82. Ether lagged the board at just under $2,400.
Over seven days ether is down almost 4%, tron about 3%, XRP roughly 3% and bitcoin about 1%, leaving zcash at $817 and HYPE as the only majors holding weekly gains.
Bitfinex analysts said in an email that the average cost basis of every active investor on the network was pegged at $76,350, and bitcoin came within $50 of it before buyers stepped in. The level has absorbed sellers who bought in February and March all week, exiting at breakeven rather than at a loss.
The firm warned of a pullback in the coming weeks, citing seasonality. “September has historically been a bearish month for BTC, with an average return of -2.95 percent since 2013,” the analysts said. “With August’s momentum carrying into the month, we expect that any intra-month correction leaves the odds in favour of continuation higher on the higher timeframes”
Bitcoin held that ground against a bond market moving hard the other way.
Renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude sharply higher and revived the inflation trade, dragging the ten-year Treasury yield to just above 4.8%, its highest close since 2023, and firming the dollar index to just under 100. Equities took it in stride, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,646 and the Dow adding roughly 277 points, and gold settled near $4,418.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a quarter-point hike on Sept. 16 at just above 62%, down from just above 67% a day earlier and about 37% a week ago, before Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Futures price no chance of a cut.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report settles the September meeting, and the options book is positioned around it. Downside protection sits between $68,000 and $75,000, struck for the window from payrolls into the CPI release on Sept. 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, with upside exposure held in calls above the current range and perpetual leverage well below its August peak.
A payrolls miss stacked on Wednesday’s ADP number pulls the hike odds down and puts $80,000 back within reach.
