Bitcoin’s quiet cycle may be healthier than it looks: Bernstein
By Lawrence Mondal from crypto.news
Bitcoin has stayed under pressure through 2026, but analysts at Bernstein argue that the muted cycle may be a sign of a maturing, more institution-driven market rather than a long-term problem.
Key points: Bernstein says retail interest has rotated toward AI-related equities, while institutions make up a larger share of Bitcoin ownership. Net inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers have slowed sharply compared with 2025, but Bernstein still maintains a bullish long-term view.
In a research note from Bernstein’s Global Digital Assets team, the firm said capital flows into Bitcoin have slowed as retail investors increasingly chase artificial intelligence opportunities.
Bernstein estimated that net inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers reached roughly $12 billion so far in 2026, down from about $60 billion during all of 2025. The firm also noted that Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows of about $2.6 billion even as the group manages around $75 billion in assets.
Rather than treating this shift as a warning sign, Bernstein said a larger share of ownership by pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, institutional asset managers and corporate treasury companies could improve market stability compared with past retail-heavy cycles.
Strategy continues accumulating Bitcoin
Bernstein highlighted Strategy as a major institutional buyer that has continued expanding its Bitcoin holdings despite the downturn.
The firm said Strategy raised about $7.5 billion via a preferred stock offering this year and used the proceeds to buy roughly 100,000 BTC. Bernstein estimated Strategy now holds more than 845,000 BTC valued at around $53.6 billion.
Bernstein also noted that some publicly traded miners are increasing exposure to AI infrastructure, citing companies such as IREN and Cipher Digital as examples benefiting from demand for AI data center capacity.
Even with Bitcoin’s prominence, Bernstein emphasized that the overall crypto market is still relatively small compared with traditional asset classes. It put total crypto market capitalization at about $2.25 trillion.
Technical weakness contrasts with Bernstein’s outlook
Despite the constructive long-term thesis, Bernstein acknowledged the near-term chart structure remains weak. At press time, Bitcoin traded near $63,800 after rebounding from a drop toward $59,000.
The report said daily chart data shows Bitcoin rebounding from oversold conditions but still below key Fibonacci retracement levels. It also cited Chaikin Money Flow staying below zero, indicating capital outflows have yet to fully reverse.
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin has traded within a bearish flag pattern after a sharp drop from the $74,000 area, with resistance converging around $64,800. Even so, Bernstein maintained its year-end price target of $150,000 and argued that a lack of retail excitement does not undermine Bitcoin’s store-of-value thesis.
Source : https://crypto.news/bitcoins-quiet-cycle-may-be-healthier-than-it-looks-bernstein/
